东吴证券晨会纪要-20250717

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential communities, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18]. - The renovation of old residential communities and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18]. - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18]. Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% for Q2 [2][20]. - Consumer spending showed resilience, with retail sales growth of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed improvement compared to the previous year [2][20]. - Industrial production increased, with the industrial added value in June rising to 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][20]. Fixed Income - The bond market experienced a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, influenced by stock market performance [6]. - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 34.825 billion yuan during the week of July 7-11, 2025, while the trading volume of green bonds in the secondary market reached 62.3 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 53 billion yuan during the same week, with a total trading volume of approximately 185.5 billion yuan in the secondary market [8]. Company Analysis - The company "锅圈" is expected to achieve revenue of 72.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a net profit of 4.0 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71% [9]. - "水井坊" anticipates a revenue decline of approximately 12.8% in H1 2025, with a net profit drop of about 56.5%, indicating challenges in the current market environment [10]. - "新和成" is projected to achieve net profits of 60 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 2%, supported by ongoing project developments in nutrition and new materials [11]. - "博瑞医药" has received IND approval for its oral drug BGM0504, which is expected to enter clinical trials soon, indicating strong potential in the diabetes treatment market [12][13]. - "炬芯科技" reported a revenue increase of 59% in Q2 2025, driven by the successful implementation of AI technology in its product offerings [14]. - "美图公司" has adjusted its profit forecast slightly downward but remains optimistic about its AI-driven growth strategy, projecting net profits of 8.54 billion yuan in 2025 [15].