山金期货原油日报-20250717

Report Overview - The report is the Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report, updated on July 17, 2025 [1][2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data are gradually confirming this. Geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, but it's difficult to reach the previous intensity. Crude oil trading may return to supply - demand fundamentals, with a definite medium - to - long - term bearish outlook. Attention should be paid to potential impacts from geopolitics, reciprocal tariffs, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act [2] - The mid - term trend of crude oil is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance around $65 and $68.3 per barrel respectively. There is a possibility of trading based on implicit expectations, but it also faces medium - to - long - term pressure. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, pay attention to timing, or use out - of - the - money put options. If WTI breaks below the $65.1 per barrel support again in the short - term, short positions can be considered [2] Data Summary Futures Prices - Sc crude oil futures price is 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan or 0.54% from the previous day, down 19.20 yuan or 3.70% from last week. WTI is at $65.53 per barrel, up $0.56 or 0.86% from the previous day and $0.52 or 0.80% from last week. Brent is at $67.28 per barrel, up $0.65 or 0.98% from the previous day, down $0.54 or 0.80% from last week [2] - Sc - WTI spread is $4.28 per barrel, down $0.13 or 2.99% from the previous day, down $3.08 or 41.84% from last week. Sc - Brent spread is $2.53 per barrel, down $0.22 or 8.06% from the previous day, down $2.02 or 44.37% from last week. Brent - WTI spread is $1.75 per barrel, down $1.01 or 36.48% from the previous day, down $2.80 or 61.57% from last week [2] Spot Prices - OPEC's basket of crude oil is at $68.35 per barrel, up $0.36 or 0.53% from last week. Brent DTD is at $68.17 per barrel, down $1.05 or 1.52% from last week. Oman is at $69.20 per barrel, up $1.40 or 2.06% from last week. Dubai is at $68.75 per barrel, up $0.95 or 1.40% from last week. ESPO is at $62.76 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.79% from last week [2] Inventory Data - Strategic petroleum reserve is 402.53 million barrels, up 0.06% from last week. Commercial crude oil is 415.11 million barrels, down 1.39% from last week. Cushing crude oil is 22.22 million barrels, down 2.05% from last week. Gasoline is 227.94 million barrels, down 0.90% from last week. Distillates are 105.33 million barrels, down 3.72% from last week [2] Other Information - The total Sc crude oil warehouse receipts are 5.911 million barrels, up 46.71% from last week. Non - commercial net positions are 233,000 contracts, up 0.83% from last week. Commercial net positions are - 270,500 contracts, down 4.44% from last week. Non - reported net positions are 37,600 contracts, up 34.17% from last week [2] Market News - From July 5th to July 11th in the US, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.399 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 4.173 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 213,000 barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels [3] - Drone attacks in Iraq's Kurdistan region reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] - The export volume of CPC Blend crude oil from the Black Sea in August is set at 1.66 million barrels per day, the same as in July [5] - Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it comply with quota requirements. Its "market supply" in June was 9.36 million barrels per day, while the actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day [5] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran is ready to respond to any new military attacks and can cause greater damage to its opponents [5] - Indonesia's Deputy Energy Minister said that energy imports from the US will be through long - to - medium - term contracts and will reduce imports from some countries like Angola, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar [5] - Russia's oil production in the first five months of 2025 was 211 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. In July, Russia's oil price in rubles was still 11% lower than the 2025 budget target [6] - US President Trump mentioned tariff policies for small countries, the performance of Fed Chairman Powell, and said he had no plan to fire Powell currently but changes would occur in the next eight months [6][8] - The EU proposed a nearly 2 trillion - euro ($2.3 trillion) budget plan for the next seven - year period, including a 589.6 - billion - euro competitiveness, prosperity, and security fund and 293.7 billion euros for the common agricultural policy [7]