格林大华期货早盘提示-20250717

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global risk preference has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, with funds flowing into US stocks, European stocks, and the technology sector, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line, indicating a possible market adjustment [1] - US 6 - month CPI did not ease tariff concerns, investors reduced their expectations of a September rate cut, and there was a sell - off of US long - term bonds, with a large amount of funds flowing into the options market betting on a rise in the 30 - year US Treasury yield [1] - As tariff pressure spreads, price pressure will intensify in the coming months, and the Fed may remain on hold [1] - Meta plans to invest billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers, signaling confidence in medium - term revenue growth and an ongoing AI capital expenditure cycle [1] - The French 40 - billion - euro fiscal adjustment plan focuses on revenue increase and expenditure reduction, with most likely coming from spending cuts, and the 30 - year bond yield has reached the highest since 2011 [1] - Trump may introduce pharmaceutical tariffs at the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar [1] - China's GDP grew 5.3% in the first half of the year, Asian exports are strong, and market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and accelerate in 2026 [1] - The US 6 - month Markit manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indexes also expanded [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition may boost listed company performance, the European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, and Germany's industry shows signs of recovery [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Information - Global risk preference growth and market warning: Global risk preference has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, funds are flowing into stocks and tech sectors, and cash allocation is below 3.9%, suggesting a possible market adjustment [1] - US bond market and tariff impact: US 6 - month CPI didn't ease tariff concerns, leading to a sell - off of long - term bonds and funds flowing into the options market betting on a 30 - year US Treasury yield rise [1] - Fed's stance on tariffs: As tariff pressure spreads, price pressure will intensify, and the Fed may wait for clearer inflation and employment signals [1] - Meta's investment in data centers: Meta plans to invest billions in data centers, showing confidence in revenue and an ongoing AI capital cycle [1] - AI evaluation: Nvidia CEO says Chinese AI models are world - class, and AI is changing every industry [1] - French fiscal adjustment: France's 40 - billion - euro fiscal plan faces resistance, with most likely from spending cuts, and the 30 - year bond yield is at a high [1] - Trump's tariff plans: Trump may introduce pharmaceutical and chip tariffs soon [1] Global Economic Logic - Economic growth: China's GDP grew 5.3% in H1, Asian exports are strong, and the market expects Fed rate cuts [1] - Manufacturing PMI: US 6 - month Markit manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indexes also expanded [1] - Other economic factors: China's rectification may boost corporate performance, the European Central Bank has cut rates, and Germany's industry shows signs of recovery [1]