铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌区间偏弱-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has a supply - demand stalemate with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term prices are expected to be range - bound [1] - The zinc market has increasing supplies of both zinc ore and zinc ingots, while demand is in the off - season with an emerging inventory build - up trend. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Consider shorting on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.21% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,978/ton, down 1.15% [1] News and Policies - In 2024, the GCC launched an anti - dumping investigation on lead - acid batteries from China or Malaysia. Different tariff ranges will be imposed on Chinese or Chinese - funded lead - acid battery enterprises [1] Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a minor decline in production due to equipment maintenance [1] - In the secondary lead sector, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost issues, with overall low production [1] - The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing may improve, reducing the drag on lead prices [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% from the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 0.18% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,699.50/ton, down 0.07% [1] News and Policies - Vedanta's Q2 2025 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production to 322,000 tons. Zinc India's production increased by 19% to 265,000 tons, and Zinc International's production increased by 50% to 57,000 tons [1] Fundamentals - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production limit due to raw material shortages is weakening, and production is expected to increase [1] - Demand is in the off - season. Although zinc prices dropped and downstream buying increased zinc inventories, overall purchasing remains limited [1]