宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that optimistic sentiment dominates and the ore price runs strongly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The production of steel mills in the off - season is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the profitability of steel mills is good, providing support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased significantly, but the shipments of miners are weak. The subsequent arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply of overseas and domestic ore is shrinking. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ore are weakly stable, and policy - driven positive expectations support the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation is high, and there is a risk of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weaker. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the dominance of optimistic sentiment and the strong operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The terminal consumption of ore is declining but still at a high level, and the profitability of steel mills provides support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased, but miner shipments are weak, and the subsequent supply is expected to shrink. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and policy - driven positive expectations support the high - level operation of ore prices, but there is a risk of trading logic switching [3].