股市关注反内卷，债市曲线或?陡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" theme in the stock index futures market has cooled on the surface, but policy support continues to increase. The anti - involution theme is expected to continue until the Politburo meeting in July. It is recommended to configure long IM positions before the meeting [3][8]. - In the stock index options market, the equity market continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a covered defense strategy [4][8]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond yield curve is expected to steepen. Trend strategies should maintain a volatile outlook, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium - term are higher [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month is - 9.2, - 7.3, - 10.59, and - 17.66 points respectively, with changes of 0.26, - 0.27, - 0.04, and 3.17 points compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 13.4, 2.4, 57, and 71.6 points respectively, with changes of - 3, - 2.8, - 2.2, and 2.4 points. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed by - 11467, - 6209, - 7629, and - 18770 lots respectively [8]. - The "anti - involution" theme on the market has cooled, and the market has switched to the TMT sector. However, the State Council Executive Meeting has strengthened the determination of "anti - involution" policies. It is recommended to configure long IM positions [3][8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety has decreased by 11.55%, and the weighted implied volatility has decreased by an average of 0.70%. The implied volatility of the near - month contracts has large intraday fluctuations, while that of the far - month contracts has declined. The average decline of the position PCR is 2.12%. It is recommended to adopt a covered defense strategy [4][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and position of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter have changed. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis have also changed. The central bank conducted a large - scale net injection in the open market [9]. - Most treasury bond futures closed down, with short - term interest rates mostly falling and long - term interest rates mostly rising, leading to a steeper yield curve. It is recommended to maintain a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium - term are higher [9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar | Time | Region | Indicator | Previous Value | Forecast Value | Announced Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/14 11:00 | China | June export amount: year - on - year (%) | 4.8 | 3.21 | 5.8 | | 2025/07/14 15:00 | China | June new RMB loans (100 million yuan) | 6200 | 18447.29 | 22400 | | 2025/07/15 10:00 | China | June industrial added value: year - on - year (%) | 5.8 | 5.49 | 6.8 | | 2025/07/15 20:30 | US | June CPI: seasonally adjusted: year - on - year (%) | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized regulating the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including cost investigation, price monitoring, and ensuring payment terms [11]. - Huang Renxun of NVIDIA attended the Chain Expo, stating that China's open - source AI is a catalyst for global progress, and the next wave of AI will be robot systems [12]. - US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting August 1st, which may lead to an escalation of trade conflicts between the US and Europe [12]. - The "2025 China Online Retail TOP100" data shows that the online sales of selected enterprises reached 2.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 13.6%. The instant retail market is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% in the next five years [12].