研究所晨会观点精萃：美国6月PPI不及预期，美元小幅走弱-20250717

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Macro - Financial: Overseas, the US 6 - month PPI was lower than expected, causing the US dollar to weaken slightly. In China, the economy grew more than expected in H1 2025, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures aim to boost employment, yet market sentiment is affected by weak policy expectations for H2 and an under - performing urban work conference. Different asset classes have different short - term outlooks [2]. - Equity Index: Affected by sectors like energy metals, insurance, and steel, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Short - term macro - upward drivers are weakening, and the focus is on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: The medium - to long - term support for precious metals remains solid. Geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown expectations, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" that increases fiscal deficits and erodes the US dollar's credit all support gold's value [5]. - Black Metals: Steel demand is differentiating, with prices rising and then falling. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices may rebound with coal prices [6][8]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash has a supply - surplus situation, and its price is under long - term pressure. Glass is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with a production cut expectation, but long - term price increases depend on demand recovery [9][10]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy: Copper prices depend on the tariff implementation time. Aluminum prices are expected to fall after a short - term oscillation. Aluminum alloy prices may be slightly bullish in the short term but have limited upside. Tin prices will be volatile in the short term and face upward pressure in the medium term. Lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are expected to be slightly bullish due to policy factors [11][13][14][15]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are oscillating. Other energy - chemical products like asphalt, PX, PTA, etc., generally have weak short - term outlooks, with prices mostly oscillating or facing downward pressure [16][17][18][19]. - Agricultural Products: US soybean exports are expected to improve, supporting the price. Different agricultural products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, etc., have different supply - demand situations and price trends [21][22][23][24]. 3. Summary by Catalog Macro - Financial - Overseas: The US President's statement about firing Powell and then denying it caused market fluctuations. The US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, leading to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's economy grew 5.3% year - on - year in H1 2025 and 5.2% in Q2, both higher than expected. However, consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures aim to boost employment, but market sentiment is affected by weak H2 policy expectations and an under - performing urban work conference [2]. Equity Index - Market Performance: Affected by sectors like energy metals, insurance, and steel, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The short - term macro - upward drivers are weakening, and the focus is on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Market Movements: On Wednesday, precious metals rose. The medium - to long - term support for precious metals remains solid due to factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown expectations, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" that erodes the US dollar's credit [5]. Black Metals - Steel: On Wednesday, the domestic steel spot market was flat, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand structure adjustment in the steel industry will continue. Real - world demand is weakening, with different trends among varieties. Supply has decreased, and the cost support is still strong. Short - term, the steel market is expected to be range - bound [6]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore prices continued to rise. Although iron - water production decreased slightly, it is still at a high level. Supply has decreased after the end - of - quarter shipment peak. Short - term, iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [6]. - Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Demand has improved. Short - term, prices may rebound with coal prices [7][8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the futures price was in a weak oscillation. Supply is in a surplus situation, demand is at a low level, and profits have declined. Long - term, the price is under pressure [9]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the futures price was oscillating. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and profits have increased slightly. Short - term, the price is supported by policies, but long - term increases depend on demand recovery [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The US inflation situation and tariff policies affect copper prices. The key to future copper price trends is the tariff implementation time [11]. - Aluminum: Social inventories have increased significantly, and the fundamentals have weakened. Short - term, after oscillation, the price is expected to fall [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Short - term, the price may be slightly bullish but has limited upside [11]. - Tin: Supply has slightly recovered, and demand is weak. Short - term, the price will be volatile, and upward pressure exists in the medium term [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is expected to be slightly bullish due to "anti - involution" policies, despite a high inventory and increasing production [13]. - Industrial Silicon: Affected by the "anti - involution" theme and coal price rebounds, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [14]. - Polysilicon: Affected by policy news, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. Caution is advised when taking long positions [15]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the oil price was affected by inventory data and overall market sentiment, and it will continue to oscillate in the near term [16]. - Asphalt: The price follows crude oil and oscillates. Demand is average, and the focus is on inventory reduction [16]. - PX: Affected by the polyester sector, the price is weak. There is support in the short term, but demand may weaken later [16]. - PTA: The supply - increase and demand - decrease situation continues, and the price has limited upside and may decline [17]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It will continue to be weakly oscillating [18][19]. - Short - Fiber: The price follows the polyester sector and is weakly oscillating. It depends on the peak - season demand in late July [19]. - Methanol: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract has long - position opportunities [19]. - PP: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [19]. - LLDPE: In the off - season, the price may rebound slightly but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the long term [20]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Export expectations have improved, supporting a slight price rebound [21]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: US soybean prices are affected by China - US trade relations. Rapeseed meal has slow inventory reduction and weak support [22]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil's supply - demand is loose, and rapeseed oil has slow inventory reduction and weak policy support [22]. - Palm Oil: The price has a short - term downward risk, and the futures price difference between soybean and palm oil has slightly narrowed [22]. - Corn: Affected by auctions and alternative feed, the price is under pressure. The futures 09 contract has limited short - selling and long - buying drives [23]. - Pigs: Pig prices are expected to be under pressure until early August. The focus is on the 14 yuan/kg support level [24].