铁矿表现强势?撑板块价格重

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6][9][12][15] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to decent June macro data and un - expected central urban work conference statements, the market anticipates a correction, with a cautious mindset. The iron ore is strong, supporting the price center of the sector. Steel and coking coal are lackluster, and the valuation repair from the basis perspective has temporarily reached its limit. The terminal demand verification point hasn't arrived, and the macro trend dominates the off - season market, expected to oscillate at high levels [1][2] - The overall market rally stimulates mid - stream inventory building, creating a positive feedback for the industry chain. The macro - favorable expectations have cooled, and future focus will be on policy implementation and off - season terminal demand performance [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - Iron Element: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, 45 - port arrivals increased as expected. Steel mills' profitability is good, and small - sample steel mill hot metal production rose, remaining at a high year - on - year level. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market price oscillates strongly [2] - Carbon Element: Some previously - overhauled coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but there are still production restrictions due to overhauls and underground issues. The overall supply has not returned to previous highs. On the import side, the China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but the Mongolian Naadam holiday lasts until the 17th, and customs clearance may remain low. Coke production has slightly decreased, but there is still rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream is actively restocking, and some coal types are in short supply. The first round of price increases for coke is expected to be implemented on Thursday [3] - Alloys: Manganese ore prices are temporarily stable, but port inventories have slightly increased. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future has significant downward potential, and the support for ore prices is insufficient. The supply of manganese silicon has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand for steel products remains stable at a relatively high level [3] - Glass: In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand is weakening. Although there was good sales at the beginning of the month, its sustainability is questionable. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing, and market sentiment has a large impact. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [6] - Soda Ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The market expects a significant reduction in photovoltaic daily melting, and heavy - soda demand is flat. Light - soda downstream demand is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Emotions are interfering with the market, and the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][15] 2. Individual Product Analysis - Steel: The central urban work conference's statements were not unexpected, and the subsequent policy - stimulus expectations have cooled. The crude steel output in the first six months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with limited subsequent production - reduction pressure. The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at high levels [9] - Iron Ore: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, and port arrivals increased. Steel mills' profitability is good, and hot metal production rose. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The market price oscillates strongly, and before the market sentiment weakens, prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2][9] - Scrap Steel: The supply of scrap steel slightly increased, but the daily consumption decreased. The factory inventory slightly decreased. The fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, but some are affected by profit pressure. The first round of price increases is expected to be implemented on Thursday. The downstream steel mills have good profits, are actively producing and restocking. The futures are at a significant premium, and the coke enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing. The market expects a second - round price increase, and the market is expected to oscillate [10][13] - Coking Coal: Some coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but overall supply has not returned to previous highs. The China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but customs clearance may remain low. The downstream has rigid demand for coking coal and is actively restocking. The coal mine inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate [3][13] - Glass: The off - season demand is declining, and deep - processing orders are decreasing. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is increasing. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [14] - Soda Ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The heavy - soda demand is flat, and the light - soda downstream demand is weak. Manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. The long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change, and enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [6][15] - Silicon Manganese: After the central urban work conference, the macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the manganese silicon market oscillated weakly. The cost support has strengthened, the supply has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and the downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [18] - Ferrosilicon: The macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the ferrosilicon price declined weakly. The cost has decreased, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [19]