宝城期货股指期货早报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on stock index futures is that they will show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the short - term, the upward momentum of the stock index has weakened, and it will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase without incremental policies. In the medium - term, the stock index is expected to rise [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view on IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, and the policy - expectation trading is quite sufficient. Further rebound requires policy support from the Politburo meeting in July. The main logic of this stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year. Although the macro - economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year is still strong. Considering that the policy is expected to take effect in the third or fourth quarter, without incremental policies in the short - term, the previous optimistic expectations will gradually cool down, and the stock index will enter an oscillation and consolidation phase [4].