上游出栏，猪价承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - View: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - Logic: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - View: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - Logic: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - View: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - Logic: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - View: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - Logic: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - Logic: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - Logic: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - View: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - Logic: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - View: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - Logic: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - View: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - View: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - Logic: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].