国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: News affects sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply [2][9] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upside potential [2][13] - Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment [2][13] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,550, and the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,670. There are also data on trading volume, prices of various nickel products, and price differences in the industrial chain [4] - Macro and Industry News: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter resumes production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to stop production for maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production target of Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is higher than that in 2024 [4][5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 66,420, and there are data on trading volume, position, warehouse receipts, and price differences in the industrial chain [10] - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index rises; in June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increase year - on - year, with exports increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month [11][12] - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,685, and the closing price of PS2508 is 42,945. There are also data on trading volume, position, price differences, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - Macro and Industry News: The US launches a national security investigation into the import of polysilicon [13][15] - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [15]