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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250717
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-17 01:39

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. Each variety has different trends and suggestions, such as PX and PTA with a weak unilateral trend and positive spreads for month - to - month spreads; MEG with low inventory and positive spreads for month - to - month spreads at low prices [2][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Overview: PX supply is still tight, and the market focuses on the production progress of Sanfangxiang. PTA supply increases while demand decreases, and the polyester start - up rate decreases. MEG supply increases and demand decreases, but inventory is low, and imports are expected to decline in July - August [6][7][8]. - View and Suggestion: For PX, do not chase short on the single - side, and do positive spreads for month - to - month spreads. Pay attention to the compression position of forward PXN. For PTA, do not chase short on the single - side, and do positive spreads for month - to - month spreads. Long PX short PTA and long PR short PTA on the 01 contract. For MEG, it is a strong - side volatile market on the single - side, and do positive spreads for month - to - month spreads [8][9]. Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of rubber fluctuates, and the trading volume and open interest decrease. The spot price of some varieties is stable, and the price of some substitutes decreases [11]. - Industry News: In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased, driving the supporting market of all - steel tires. However, in the second half of the year, risks such as trade barriers and demand slowdown need to be concerned [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of synthetic rubber slightly corrects, and the trading volume, open interest, and turnover decrease. The spot price of various varieties decreases, and the start - up rate and theoretical cost remain unchanged [15]. - Industry News: The static valuation range of the futures of butadiene rubber is 11000 - 11800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it mainly fluctuates in the range, and the upside space is narrowed [15][17]. Asphalt - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of asphalt fluctuates in the range, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts decrease. The spot price of some regions changes, the refinery start - up rate decreases, and the inventory rate decreases [19]. - Market News: The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises increases slightly, the maintenance volume of asphalt devices decreases, and the shipment volume of some enterprises increases [29]. LLDPE - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of LLDPE fluctuates weakly, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of some regions decreases [30]. - Market Situation Analysis: The fundamentals of polyethylene do not improve significantly. The supply pressure increases, and the demand support is weak. The downstream is in the off - season, and the terminal orders are weak [31]. PP - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of PP decreases slightly, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of the domestic market decreases slightly [34][35]. - Spot News: The futures price of PP suppresses the trading atmosphere, the factory price of some production enterprises decreases, and the market trading is weak [35]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of caustic soda rebounds, and the basis is positive. The spot price of Shandong is stable [37]. - Market Situation Analysis: The supply pressure of caustic soda is still large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The rebound is difficult to sustain, and the market may short the profit of caustic soda again [38]. Pulp - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of pulp fluctuates, and the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt quantity decrease. The basis and month - to - month spread change [43]. - Industry News: The pulp price is weak, the port inventory is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The market of kraft paper and white cardboard is not good [44][46]. Glass - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of glass is stable, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of some regions increases slightly [48]. - Spot News: The price of float glass is stable with a slight increase, and the sales of some regions slow down after the price increase [48]. Methanol - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of methanol fluctuates, and the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt quantity change. The spot price of some regions decreases [50]. - Spot News: The spot price index of methanol decreases, and the market in the northwest region fluctuates within the range. The supply and demand of methanol both decline in the short term, and it is expected to show a volatile pattern [52]. Urea - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of urea fluctuates, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of some factories decreases [54]. - Industry News: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreases, the domestic demand is weak, and the export supports. The market fluctuates in the short term [55][56]. Styrene - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of styrene fluctuates weakly, and the profit and month - to - month spread change [57]. - Spot News: Pure benzene supply and demand increase, styrene supply increases and demand decreases, and the profit is compressed. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly short - allocated [58]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of soda ash decreases slightly, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price is stable [59]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market fluctuates steadily, the supply remains high, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to be weakly stable and volatile in the short term [59]. LPG - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of LPG fluctuates, and the trading volume, open interest, and spread change. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation change [61]. - Market News: The expected price of Saudi CP decreases, and there are many PDH device maintenance plans in the country. The cost support is effective, and there may be a short - term rebound [67][68]. PVC - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of PVC fluctuates weakly, and the basis and month - to - month spread are negative. The spot market trading is dull [69]. - Market Situation Analysis: The supply reduction drive of PVC is insufficient, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to relieve, and the market may short the profit of chlor - alkali [70]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of fuel oil fluctuates weakly at night, and the short - term may be temporarily stable. The low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the outer - market spot decreases slightly [74]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in various regions change slightly [74]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) increases, and the trading volume, open interest, and spread change. The freight index of European and American routes changes [76]. - Market News: In August, Maersk adds 2 additional ships [79].