烧碱：成本下滑，短期偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures prices is driven by previous production cuts due to weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking, but the supply - side drive is unsustainable as production - cut devices have resumed, and the demand is in the off - season, so the rebound lacks sustainability. Once costs decline and spot prices struggle to rise, the market may short caustic soda profits. The supply pressure is still high in July with reduced maintenance capacity compared to June and new capacity of 1.1 million tons from June to July. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, while the export direction provides some support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2466, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong is 820, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price is 2563, and the basis is 97 [1] Spot News - In the Shandong liquid caustic soda market, prices are stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. Low - concentration caustic soda's high - price sales have slowed down, and the inventory of each factory varies [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures prices is due to previous production cuts of some devices affected by weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking. However, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to the resumption of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, and the production - cut devices of caustic soda have basically recovered this week, so the supply - side drive is unsustainable. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream willingness to restock at high prices is low, so the rebound lacks sustainability. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and previously maintained devices in Shandong will gradually restart. From June to July, new caustic soda capacity may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is neutral, and the export direction provides some support with strong willingness to restock at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The caustic soda trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [4]