国新国证期货早报-20250717

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 10720.81, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.22% to 2230.19. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 4007.20, down 11.86 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 16, the coke weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1502.6, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index also fluctuated, closing at 912.0 yuan, down 14.4. For coke, due to the rising price of coking coal, the number of loss - making coke enterprises increased, and the supply continued to shrink. A price increase was about to be implemented, and short - term coking profits were expected to recover. But with the strong rise of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still faced loss pressure and might raise prices again. The demand from downstream steel mills was supported, and the inventory structure improved. For coking coal, domestic supply increased as mines resumed production, the Mongolian port was about to resume customs clearance, and the arrival of Australian coal increased this week. The import profit of overseas coal was restored, and subsequent shipments might increase [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rebound of US sugar and weak spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to fluctuate narrowly. In India, the water level of 161 major reservoirs reached nearly 52% of the total capacity, higher than last year and the past ten - year average. The southwest monsoon was active, and the sown area of monsoon crops increased by 11% compared with last year [2]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological department warned of heavy rain from July 19 - 21, which might slow down rubber tapping and reduce supply, supporting the futures price. However, weak demand prospects dampened market sentiment. Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025. Affected by these factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday and continued to rise slightly at night. In June, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from 2024. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from last year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 16, CBOT soybean futures prices rose due to hopes of increased US export demand. The good growth of US soybeans reduced the risk of production cuts. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 16, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2977 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The arrival of imported soybeans and the oil mill operating rate remained high, but feed enterprises' purchases were limited, and the supply pressure at the spot end increased. There was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September, which supported the far - month contract [5]. Live Pigs - On July 15, live pigs trended weakly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14010 yuan/ton, down 1.68%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, and farmers were more willing to sell. The terminal market was in the off - season, and demand was weak. The inventory and performance of sows were recovering, and there was still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [5]. Palm Oil - On July 16, palm oil maintained a high - level volatile trend, with increased amplitude. It closed at 8722, up 0.16%. From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected US CPI data led to the rebound of the US dollar index, which restricted the rebound of non - ferrous metals. However, the inventory accumulation in non - US regions was limited, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference in China weakened the downward momentum of Shanghai copper. It was expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 78500 yuan/ton. If it could hold the support at around 78000 yuan, it might continue to be slightly stronger; otherwise, it might test the 77500 - yuan support [6]. Logs - On Wednesday, the 2509 log contract opened at 788, with a low of 787, a high of 797, and closed at 797, with an increase of 2549 lots in positions. Attention was paid to the support at 785 - 790 and the resistance at 800. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January - June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. Port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [6][7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton. On July 17, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 73 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Steel - On July 16, rb2510 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3253 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affected downstream construction, weakening steel demand and increasing supply - demand pressure. However, the cost supported steel prices. In the short term, steel prices were expected to adjust narrowly [7][8]. Alumina - On July 16, ao2509 closed at 3111 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price was stable, the trading activity was average, holders were reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The trading volume was limited [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 16, al2508 closed at 20435 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. With the macro - tariff concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the supply side changed little, demand weakened, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased over the weekend, so it was under pressure at high levels [8].