宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost fluctuations. PX is expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate, and PR is expected to oscillate. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors, and the industry's fundamentals are moving towards weakness [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On July 16, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.21% and 0.28% respectively; the spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and p - xylene (PX) also declined, with xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea dropping by 1.74% [1]. - PTA: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 0.21%, while the near - month contract settlement price decreased by 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price rose by 0.08%, and the CCFEI PTA outer - disk price index dropped by 2.05%. The near - far month spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton [1]. - PX: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 0.42%, and the near - month contract closing price increased by 1.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread increased by 8.86%. The basis decreased by 28 yuan/ton [1]. - PR: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 0.27%, and the near - month contract closing price increased by 0.07%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets remained unchanged, and the basis in both markets decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream: The CCFEI price indices of polyester products such as polyester DTY and POY remained unchanged, while the price indices of polyester FDY68D, FDY150D, short - fiber, and polyester chips decreased, with polyester FDY68D and FDY150D dropping by 0.73% [2]. Production and Sales Information - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, remained unchanged on July 16, 2025. The sales rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips increased by 6%, 3%, and 31% respectively [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - International Crude Oil: Macro - risks have declined, but the supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, with inventory accumulation in both crude oil and refined oil, and the demand for gasoline during the summer travel season is fluctuating, putting pressure on oil prices [2]. - PX: The current inventory of PX is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. However, the supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA: The PTA processing fee has fallen below 200 yuan/ton. Although there are unplanned device maintenance, new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult to boost prices. The polyester factory's actual maintenance in July has led to a significant decline in operating rates compared to June [2]. - Market Situation: The spot market lacks new major news, and the trading atmosphere is not strong. The spot basis has slightly increased recently. The polyester bottle - chip market is stable, with supply at a low level and downstream buying enthusiasm being average [2]. Trading Strategies - On July 16, 2025, the TA2509 contract of PTA closed at 4,706 yuan/ton (- 0.04%), with a trading volume of 559,100 lots; the PX2509 contract of PX closed at 6,716 yuan/ton (0%), with a trading volume of 144,100 lots; the 2509 contract of PR closed at 5,886 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), with a trading volume of 30,600 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to oscillate, with PX, PTA, and PR all in an oscillatory state [2].