铅：下方或有限

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lead, suggesting that the downside of lead may be limited, but no clear core view is explicitly stated other than presenting data on lead's market performance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price and Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,895 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 32,614 lots, a decrease of 988 lots. The closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was $2,001/ton, down 0.20%, and the trading volume was 7,688 lots, an increase of 811 lots [1]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 53,407 lots, an increase of 740 lots, while the LME lead open interest was 134,717 lots, a decrease of 7,430 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$31.9/ton, an increase of $1.6/ton [1]. - Inventory: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,086 tons, a decrease of 682 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 269,225 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 42,475 tons, a decrease of 5,075 tons [1]. - Profit and Loss: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -592.32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35.36 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -483.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.2 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -503 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - Trump plans to send tariff letters to more than 150 countries, announcing the achievement of some trade agreements and naming India. Under the threat of a 30% tariff, the EU is considering using an "anti - coercion tool" to respond to Trump [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].