中泰期货晨会纪要-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different sectors and commodities show diverse trends and investment opportunities [12][15][37]. - For macro - finance, the stock index futures market may have profit - taking demand, and the bond market may rebound. In the black market, it is expected to be mainly in a short - term shock state. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions. In the agricultural products market, prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical industry is also affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [12][15][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Chinese government is focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and regulating the new energy vehicle industry. The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo was opened. NVIDIA's CEO believes that China's open - source AI promotes global progress, and the next wave of AI will be robot systems [8]. - From July 1 - 13, the national passenger car market retail volume increased by 7% year - on - year, and the new energy market retail volume increased by 26% year - on - year. Trump said he probably won't fire Powell, and he is considering trade agreements and tariffs. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the moving average and consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have profit - taking demand due to the release of macro data and company reports [12]. Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the capital situation during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound. The central bank's reverse repurchase increases to protect the capital during the tax period. The economic data shows that the annual growth target pressure is reduced, and the bond market may correct the pricing of capital and supervision [13]. Black Market Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuation reason: The release of economic data led to a weak performance in the black market. - Future market view: The policy expectation has improved in the short - to - medium term, but it is more likely to be stable overall. The downstream demand has seasonal and marginal weakening, and the supply will remain at a high level. The steel valuation may increase, and the short - term market may be mainly in shock [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: Affected by policy expectations, the black - series commodities rebounded, driving the double - coking to continue to rebound. In the medium term, it is still under pressure due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: In July, the supply gap of double - silicon is expected to narrow significantly, and the supply - demand structure will weaken marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: With the decline in risk preference and the increase in inventory accumulation expectations, it is recommended to short at high prices. In the off - season, it can be bought at low prices for the peak - season consumption [21]. - Alumina: In the short term, it can be bought to repair the discount. In the long term, it is under pressure due to over - supply and high inventory [21]. Zinc - View: The inventory has increased, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate and decline [22]. Lithium Carbonate - View: It will mainly operate in a wide - range shock before the impact of the mine - end disturbance is determined [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but it may return to the over - supply situation due to the high elasticity of supply. The market is expected to be in shock [24]. - Polysilicon: The anti -内卷 signal has been issued, which may deviate from the over - supply contradiction in the short term. The supply - demand difference may return to the inventory - accumulation expectation [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The cotton price is still in the process of shock and rebound. It is recommended to hold the long - September and short - January trade [27]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar price is under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decrease in import costs. It will run in shock in the short term [28]. Eggs - View: It has entered the seasonal rise, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the long - term anti - arbitrage combination [30]. Apples - View: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in a range - bound shock [31]. Corn - View: The market is in shock. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the valuation repair opportunity after the market decline [32]. Red Dates - View: It is recommended to lightly short. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short term, and the market is in the bottom - range shock [33]. Pigs - View: The spot price is declining, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract lightly [35]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by trade wars and the global economic situation. It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [37]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as power - generation demand and shipping [38]. Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold put options or have a slightly short - biased allocation [39]. Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock. It is recommended to short after a rebound or consider put options [41]. Caustic Soda - The futures contract is expected to be in a weak shock. The weakening of liquid chlorine will support the price in the short term [42]. Asphalt - It follows the price of crude oil and is stronger than crude oil. The fundamentals are stable during the rainy season [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is still recommended to short at high prices. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations and trends [44]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be in shock. It is recommended to adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating puts for those holding spot goods [45]. Logs - The 09 contract is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the downstream start - up and port inventory [46]. Urea - Affected by rumors and market fundamentals, the price has a downward drive, but it is not advisable to short aggressively. It can be considered to buy at low prices [47].