格林大华期货股指早盘提示-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend going long on all four stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market. With the recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points, it is recommended to go long on stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely, falling first and then rising, with growth - style indices being strong. The total turnover of the two markets was 1.44 trillion yuan, showing a contraction in volume. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6462 points, up 19 points or 0.30%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6017 points, down 1 point or - 0.03%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2740 points, down 6 points or - 0.23%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4007 points, down 11 points or - 0.30%. Among industry and theme ETFs, auto parts, film and television, robotics, traditional Chinese medicine, and biovaccine ETFs led the gains, while steel, semiconductor materials, and software ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, chemical pharmaceuticals, film and television theaters, reducers, home appliance parts, and auto services led the gains, while components, games, energy metals, lithium extraction from salt lakes, and small and medium - sized bank indices led the losses. The settled funds of stock index futures for CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had net outflows of 53, 34, 22, and 12 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The Central Urban Work Conference deployed 7 key tasks, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, and smart cities [1] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun said that Chinese AI models are "world - class", and AI is changing every industry, with China's open - source AI being a catalyst for global progress [1] - Great Wall Securities believes that the humanoid robot industry is expanding rapidly, with many domestic and foreign manufacturers launching mass - produced products, and the commercialization process is expected to accelerate further [1] - Zuckerberg announced that Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers, indicating confidence in medium - term revenue growth and a strong signal that the AI capital expenditure cycle is far from over [1] - A survey by Bank of America's fund managers shows that global risk appetite has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, with funds flowing into US, European stocks, and the technology sector at a record pace, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line, suggesting a possible market adjustment [1] - The South Korean government is considering "strategic concessions" on some agricultural product import restrictions to gain more room for a broader trade agreement with the US, which has triggered a strong backlash from farmers' groups [2] - France's 40 - billion - euro fiscal adjustment plan will focus on increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, but each aspect faces great resistance. With limited tax measures, the main part of the adjustment will come from spending cuts. The yield of France's 30 - year bonds has risen to 4.2140%, the highest since 2011 [2] - The US CPI in June failed to ease tariff concerns, leading investors to reduce their expectations of an interest rate cut in September, and a sell - off of long - term US bonds. A large amount of funds flowed into the options market, betting that the yield of 30 - year US bonds will jump to 5.3% in about five weeks [2] - JPMorgan Chase warned that as tariff pressure spreads to a wider range of commodities, price pressure will intensify in the coming months, and the Fed may remain on hold [2] - Trump said that pharmaceutical tariffs may be introduced "by the end of the month", and the timeline for introducing chip tariffs is similar to that of pharmaceutical tariffs [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3500 - point mark. Citi believes that China's exports in June showed resilience, and imports had their first year - on - year positive growth this year, reflecting improved domestic demand and potentially supporting stable economic growth. Great Wall Securities believes that the commercialization process of the humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate [1][2] Future Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, and the Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3500 - point mark. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. The global reallocation of financial assets is moving away from the US, which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The anti - involution trend is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market. With the recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points, the wealth effect of the stock market is emerging, and the inflow of funds is expected to accelerate in the future [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, it is recommended to go long on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a capital - driven upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3500 - point mark. For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [2]