国泰君安期货所长早读：特朗普会解职鲍威尔吗？-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - Zinc: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - Lead: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - Tin: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - Aluminum: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - Nickel: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon): Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - Thermal Coal: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - Cotton: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - Natural Rubber: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].