房地产行业2025年6月统计局数据点评：单月销售与投资降幅扩大，开竣工降幅虽收窄，但仍处于历史低位

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both sales and investment in the real estate sector, with June sales area at 105 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, marking the lowest level since 2011 [1][12]. - The total development investment in June was 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, which is a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to May [1][9]. - New construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Housing Sales - The sales area in June was 105 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, which is a 2.2 percentage point increase in the decline compared to May [1]. - The sales amount for June was 1.02 trillion yuan, down 10.8% year-on-year, marking a return to double-digit negative growth after eight months [1][14]. - The average selling price of commodity housing in June was 9,634 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [7]. 2. Commodity Residential Inventory - The broad inventory of commodity residential properties stood at 1.63 billion square meters at the end of June, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.2% [2]. - The current housing inventory (completed but unsold) was approximately 408 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2]. 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Construction, and Completion - The development investment in June was 1.04 trillion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment at 803.9 billion yuan, down 11.8% [6]. - New construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, remaining at historically low levels [6][11]. - The completion area in June was 41.82 million square meters, down 1.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed significantly [6][16]. 4. Developer Funding - In June, the total funds available to real estate companies were 99.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [6][16]. - The decline in sales receipts was significant, with housing sales receipts down 18.6% year-on-year [21]. - The report suggests that the second quarter saw a notable weakening in both sales and investment data, with expectations for policy support to improve market conditions [6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines: stable fundamentals in core cities, "small but beautiful" companies with significant breakthroughs, companies with operational changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [6].