沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Overseas copper mines face production or transportation disruptions, but due to the Trump administration's significant tariff hikes on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional off - season in the domestic market, the global total inventory of electrolytic copper continues to accumulate. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,980, a decrease of 110 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 60,926 lots, a decrease of 20,740 lots; the open interest was 160,457 lots, a decrease of 9,473 lots; the inventory was 50,242 tons, an increase of 109 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,060, an increase of 65 [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: The Shanghai copper basis was 80, an increase of 175 compared to the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, an increase of 55; in North China, it was - 140, a decrease of 30; in East China, it was - 40, a decrease of 40 [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 16, 2025, was 9,637, a decrease of 20.5 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 121,000 tons [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 16, 2025, was 5.5185, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day, and the total inventory was 239,435 tons, an increase of 2,981 tons [2]. 3.2 Important News - Macro - economic: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September, raising funds by increasing the weekly standard Treasury bond issuance scale. The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in June was 147,000, higher than expected and the previous value. The annual CPI rate in June was 2.7%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December [2]. - Upstream: A blasting fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in three deaths. Miners' protests at some mines were suspended until July 18. The China copper concentrate import index was negative and increased compared to last week. The export of high - quality refined copper in Europe was restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference was negative, and the import window for refined copper was open. Some smelters had production suspensions or capacity adjustments. The weekly processing fees for copper in North (South) China decreased (increased) [2]. - Downstream: The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production to cut inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The capacity utilization rates of copper products such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper wrapping wires, steel strips, and copper tubes showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase month - on - month. The traditional off - season and Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, and import volume of domestic copper enterprises in July [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper around 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000, London copper around 4,300 - 5,600 and 9,800 - 10,000, and US copper around 5.0 - 6.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [2].