尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250717

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround still lies in exports. (View Score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - Futures Prices: On July 16, compared with July 15, the closing price of UR01 in Shandong increased by 3 yuan/ton (0.18%), in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%), and remained unchanged in other regions. UR05 increased by 4 yuan/ton (0.23%), and UR09 increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%) [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices: On July 16, compared with July 15, the spot price in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.09%), in Hebei decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), in the Northeast decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.21%), and in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.65%) [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 16 compared with July 15 [1]. b) Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1731 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1739 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1726 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1733 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1734 yuan/ton, and the position was 197,633 lots [1]. c) Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1733. The subsequent turnaround of urea prices still lies in exports [1].