甲醇日评：估值偏高，驱动向下-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a weak and volatile trend. Considering valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have recovered, but inland downstream profits are still poor and have room for improvement, making methanol relatively overvalued. In terms of drivers, there is a trend of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and inventory accumulation for methanol. If downstream MTO device maintenance is implemented, it will push the methanol price down. Even if it is not implemented, the current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes further inventory - building unlikely, and port inventory is likely to continue to increase, suppressing the spot price in East China. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 16, 2025, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.71%); MA09 closed at 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: The spot price in Taicang was 2377.50 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.31%); in Shandong, it was 2262.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton (0.33%); in Guangdong, it was 2390.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%); in Shaanxi, it was 2042.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2175.00 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2295.00 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1972.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was -56.50 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiakesi Q5500 was 437.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.16%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 502.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 was 507.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.00%) [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol production profit was 404.50 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.53%); natural - gas - based methanol production profit remained unchanged at -590.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 434.20 yuan/ton, up 13.80 yuan/ton (3.28%); the profit of East China MTO was -674.57 yuan/ton, up 28.50 yuan/ton (4.05%); the profit of acetic acid was 314.70 yuan/ton, up 2.21 yuan/ton (0.71%); the profit of MTBE was 107.24 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (38.84%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -238.80 yuan/ton; the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 466.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2367 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 448911 lots and an open interest of 654082, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts were traded during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. Recently, a small number of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future were traded with an increase of 1.8%. In other Middle - East regions, the reference transaction price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.8 - 1% [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1].