Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different industries affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, weather conditions, and trade policies. Short - term market risk preference is slightly bullish, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology growth assets on the basis of dividend assets [2][49]. Summary by Industry Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices declined. In July, the negative impact of trade wars may outweigh the positive impact of geopolitical factors, causing oil prices to be under pressure. In August, there is a possibility of a price increase if the European diesel contradiction persists [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Under the OPEC+ production increase plan, the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to rise. FU cracking is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's single - side trend follows crude oil, and its cracking may enter an oscillatory pattern [22]. - Asphalt: The supply increase of asphalt needs further observation, demand remains weak but has recovery potential, and inventory at a low level supports prices. The single - side trend follows crude oil, and the upward driving force is limited before demand improves [23]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Middle East production pressure persists, overseas prices are oscillating weakly, and the domestic market is experiencing weak supply and demand. The futures market is oscillating weakly [24]. - Urea: The supply is abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and the market is expected to be in a state of balanced supply and demand. The market is likely to oscillate within a certain range [25]. - Methanol: The import volume has increased significantly, and ports are accumulating inventory. Some domestic enterprises may postpone maintenance. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [26]. - Pure Benzene: The cost support weakens as oil prices decline, and there is supply pressure in the short term. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter, and it is recommended to use a monthly spread band - trading strategy [27]. - Benzene Ethylene: The cost end is oscillating, the supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in poor spot trading [28]. - Polypropylene & Plastic: The polyethylene supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart, and the demand is weak. Polypropylene has bottom support from maintenance devices, but the demand is still weak [29]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC supply increases, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, and the futures price is expected to be weak [30]. - PX & PTA: PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens, dragging down PX. PTA has a driving force for upward repair of processing margins [31]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is a possibility of supply contraction, and it is recommended to have a short - term long position, with the main risk being a decline in oil prices [32]. - Short Fiber & Bottle Chip: Short fiber demand shows resilience, and it can be treated bullishly. Bottle chip production is cut, orders are weak, and the spot profit is recovering [33]. Metals - Precious Metals: The performance of precious metals is sensitive to event - driven factors, and they are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales data [3]. - Copper: The copper price oscillated and closed lower. It is recommended that short - position holders consider option strategies [4]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum market is fluctuating narrowly, and there is short - term callback pressure due to inventory accumulation in the off - season [5]. - Alumina: The upward trend of the alumina spot price eases, the production capacity is in a surplus state, and the futures price is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with weak demand but certain resilience due to tight scrap aluminum supply [7]. - Zinc: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - Lead: The price is under pressure to decline, and it is advisable to wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Shanghai nickel market has room for rebound, and it is advisable to wait for a better short - selling position. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the spot trading is weak [10]. - Tin: The tin price declined, and it is recommended to short [11]. - Carbonate Lithium: The price is oscillating and rebounding, but the supply is abundant, and it is advisable to start short - position layout [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price is slightly correcting, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the change in warehouse receipts [13]. - Polysilicon: The futures price is rebounding, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [14]. - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: The steel price is strengthening again. The demand is weak, and the market is waiting for the implementation of substantial measures. The short - term trend may be volatile [15]. - Iron Ore: The price is rising. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is at a relatively high level, and the short - term trend follows that of steel products, with limited upward space [16]. - Coke: The price is oscillating downward. The price increase is expected to be implemented, and the price follows that of steel products [17]. - Coking Coal: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is increasing, and the price follows that of steel products [18]. - Silicon Manganese: The price is under pressure, and it follows the trend of rebar [19]. - Silicon Iron: The price is under pressure, and it follows the trend of rebar [20]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: There is news about a potential Sino - US trade agreement, which affects the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. Attention should be paid to trade news and weather in the US soybean - producing areas [37]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The price of US soybeans is rising, and attention should be paid to weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Palm oil is in an adjustment state. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy for vegetable oils in the long term [38]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The price of Canadian rapeseed is likely to oscillate weakly in the short term. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as potential imports from Australia [39]. - Soybean No. 1: The domestic soybean price is rebounding. Attention should be paid to weather in the northeastern region and policy changes [40]. - Corn: The Dalian corn price is oscillating downward. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic corn market may continue to decline [41]. - Live Pig: The futures price of live pigs has dropped significantly, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to decline in the medium term [42]. - Egg: The egg futures price is oscillating and correcting. The short - term downward space is limited, and the long - term cycle has not reached the bottom [43]. - Cotton: The US cotton is growing well, and the USDA report is bearish. The Zhengzhou cotton price is restricted by weak demand, but the inventory is expected to be tight, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - Sugar: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to production data and weather [45]. - Apple: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season apple production is estimated to be bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [46]. - Timber: The timber price is oscillating. The supply is limited, but the demand is in the off - season, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: The pulp futures price is slightly declining. The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): The 08 contract will converge with the spot price, and the upward space of the far - month contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the spot price [21]. - Stock Index: The short - term market risk preference is slightly bullish. In terms of market style, it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology growth assets on the basis of dividend assets [49]. - Treasury Bond: The treasury bond futures price is oscillating. The global interest - rate cut trend is slowing down, and the domestic bond market may experience increased volatility [50].
综合晨报-20250717
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:24