商品期货早班车-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, short - term risk avoidance is recommended, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [2]. - For basic metals, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to wait and see; alumina prices are expected to oscillate, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3]. - For industrial silicon, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely; for lithium carbonate, prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [4]. - For black industries, for steel, it is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread for rebar; for iron ore, it is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions for the 2605 coil - ore ratio; for coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - For agricultural products, for soybean meal, it is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to production area weather and tariff policies; for corn, futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly; for sugar, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy on dips; for palm oil, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; for eggs, futures prices are expected to oscillate; for live pigs, futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust; for apples, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - For energy chemicals, for LLDPE, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term; for PVC, it is recommended to wait and see; for PX, it is recommended to be long - allocated, and for PTA, short - term positive spreads can be considered, and short - selling processing fees at high prices in the long term; for rubber, it is recommended to use a wide - range oscillation strategy; for glass, it is recommended to wait and see; for PP, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term; for MEG, it is recommended to go short at high prices; for EB, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term; for soda ash, it is recommended to go short at high prices [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated significantly. Gold once rose more than 1% during the session due to market rumors [1]. - Fundamentals: Fed officials expect the impact of tariffs on inflation to increase; US June PPI was lower than expected; there were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions [2]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on gold; short - term risk avoidance for silver, but there are short - selling opportunities in the long run [2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 1.09% from the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly operating capacity increased; it was the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [3]. - Trading Strategies: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.08% from the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plant production was stable, and the weekly operating capacity remained unchanged; electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategies: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the main 09 contract opened lower and oscillated. The closing price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [4]. - Fundamentals: In the supply side, Yunnan's start - up rate was 29%, and social inventory decreased slightly; in the demand side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - Trading Strategies: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2509 contract rose 0.39% due to market concerns about mining rights issues, but there was no short - term shutdown risk [4]. - Fundamentals: In July, the expected production of lithium carbonate increased; the import price of lithium spodumene concentrate rose; downstream production increased, but inventory reached a new high [4]. - Trading Strategies: Prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the main 08 contract opened lower and oscillated upward, with an increase in open interest [4]. - Fundamentals: The futures market rose significantly this week due to supply - side reform expectations; supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [4]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [4]. Black Industries Rebar Steel - Market Performance: The main 2510 contract rebounded after reaching the bottom, rising 22 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Building material supply and demand were both weak, but inventory pressure was small; plate demand stabilized, and exports remained high; steel supply and demand were balanced, and the futures discount narrowed [5]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract oscillated strongly, rising 16 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals increased; iron ore supply and demand were neutral, and the inventory build - up might be slower than the seasonal pattern [5][6]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions for the 2605 coil - ore ratio [6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract oscillated horizontally, falling 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Iron water production decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented; supply - side inventory was divided, and overall supply and demand were relatively loose [6]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rebounded overnight [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near and far term, and the demand was variable [7]. - Trading Strategies: Follow the international cost side and pay attention to production area weather and tariff policies [7]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2509 contract continued to decline, and spot prices showed different trends in different regions [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand tightened marginally, but there were factors suppressing prices [7]. - Trading Strategies: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 5801 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.05% [7]. - Fundamentals: Domestic and international markets rebounded jointly, but there was pressure on prices due to imports [7]. - Trading Strategies: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton prices oscillated narrowly, and international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [7][8]. - Fundamentals: International and domestic cotton markets had different situations, and there were factors affecting prices [8]. - Trading Strategies: Buy on dips [8]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The short - term trading center continued to move up [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased marginally, and demand decreased month - on - month but had year - on - year support [8]. - Trading Strategies: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2508 contract declined slightly, and spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, demand was affected by the weather, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - Trading Strategies: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract's decline widened, and spot prices fell across the board [8]. - Fundamentals: Consumption weakened seasonally, supply increased, and prices were weak [8]. - Trading Strategies: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [8]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 7840 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.28%, and spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples rose, but current consumption was light [8]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly, with a weakening basis and general market transactions [9]. - Fundamentals: Domestic supply increased, and imports were expected to decrease; demand improved marginally [10]. - Trading Strategies: Oscillate weakly in the short term, and go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term [10]. PVC - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 4933, with a decline of 1.1% [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulated [10]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PX and PTA - Market Performance: PX CFR China price was 834 US dollars/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 4720 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was at a medium level, and PTA supply increased; polyester load decreased, and inventory was high [10]. - Trading Strategies: Long - allocate PX, consider short - term positive spreads for PTA, and short - sell processing fees at high prices in the long term [10]. Rubber - Market Performance: On Wednesday, rubber prices oscillated strongly, and the main contract rose 0.55% [10]. - Fundamentals: Raw material prices were supported, and inventory was expected to decrease [10]. - Trading Strategies: Use a wide - range oscillation strategy [10]. Glass - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 1070, with a decline of 1.1% [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, inventory decreased, and downstream demand was general [10]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract declined slightly, with a strengthening basis and general market transactions [11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated; the export window reopened [11]. - Trading Strategies: Oscillate weakly in the short term, and go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term [11]. MEG - Market Performance: East China spot price was 4400 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 70 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: Supply was at a high level, and inventory was at a low level; polyester load decreased slightly [11]. - Trading Strategies: Expected to run weakly, and go short at high prices [11]. EB - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly, and market transactions were general [11]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side inventory had different trends, and demand was under pressure; the import window was closed [11]. - Trading Strategies: Oscillate weakly in the short term, and go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term [11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The 09 contract closed at 1208, with a decline of 1.4% [11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak [11]. - Trading Strategies: It is recommended to go short at high prices [11].