公用事业行业跟踪周报：2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重发布，跨经营区常态化交易机制方案批复-20250717

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice regarding the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight for 2025, which is set at 34.9%, an increase of 3 percentage points from 31.9% in 2024. The target for 2026 is projected to be 35.8% [4] - A new cross-regional trading mechanism for electricity has been approved, promoting interconnection in the electricity market [4] Industry Data Tracking - Electricity Price: The average grid purchase price in May 2025 was 394 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year but up 0.4% month-on-month [39] - Coal Price: As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 632 RMB/ton, an increase of 8 RMB/ton week-on-week, but down 25.82% year-on-year [44] - Water Conditions: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 157 meters, with inflow and outflow rates decreasing by 18% and 24% year-on-year, respectively [56] - Electricity Consumption: Total electricity consumption from January to May 2025 was 3.97 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [13] - Power Generation: Cumulative power generation from January to May 2025 was 3.73 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [21] - Installed Capacity: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power reached 1.46 billion kW, with an increase of 4% year-on-year [49] Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Focus on regional thermal power investment opportunities, recommending companies such as China Power Investment and Huadian International [4] - Hydropower: Highlighting the benefits of low-cost hydropower, with a strong cash flow and dividend capacity, recommending companies like Yangtze Power [4] - Nuclear Power: Emphasizing growth potential with recent approvals for new units, recommending China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4] - Green Energy: Noting improvements in asset quality and growth potential, recommending Longyuan Power and others [4] - Consumption: Attention to the smart grid and ultra-high voltage industries, recommending companies involved in these sectors [4]