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20250717申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250717
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:35

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, but the real estate sector remains weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand shows mixed trends, with the real estate sector being weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and household appliance production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand in the power and automotive sectors is growing positively, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,980 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,637 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 64.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 110,475 tons, and the daily change was 850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand in the automotive and infrastructure sectors is growing, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,700 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 8.95 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 118,600 tons, and the daily change was 5,200 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 100 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,576 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 416,975 tons, and the daily change was 11,425 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,700 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 207.51 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.02 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 271,075 tons, and the daily change was 10,125 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,510 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 32,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 108.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,980 tons, and the daily change was - 115 tons [2].