申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250717

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2509 contract down 0.05% and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined. Key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad also changed. Overall, the current external environment is more complex, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports treasury bond prices to some extent, but the "anti - involution" policy drives up some commodity prices, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term due to the rise in market risk appetite [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Market - Price and Volume: On the previous trading day, the prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. For example, the T2509 contract decreased by 0.05%. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. The trading volume varied among different contracts [2]. - IRR: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, suggesting no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Most short - term market interest rates declined on the previous trading day. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped by 4.2bp, the DR007 rate fell by 5.66bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 4.3bp [2]. Spot Market - Domestic Treasury Bond Yields: Yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 0.13bp to 1.66%, and the 10 - 2 year yield spread was 25.05bp [2]. - Overseas Treasury Bond Yields: The 10 - year US treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, the 10 - year German treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10 - year Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 1.3bp [2]. Macro and Industry Information - Macro News: The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan. The State Council held a meeting to discuss various policies. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy vehicles showed different growth trends. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and Trump made statements about the Fed chair [3]. - Industry Information: On July 16, most money - market interest rates showed mixed trends. The yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, mainly affected by the news of Trump's potential dismissal of the Fed chair [3].