软商品日报：供应担忧挥之不去，原糖震荡偏强-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will also exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - Foreign Market Quotes: On July 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.06% from 16.56 to 16.55 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.01% from 68.57 to 68.56 dollars [3]. - Spot Prices: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, the price of sugar in Kunming remained unchanged at 5905.0, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.20% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15300.0 [3]. - Price Spreads: From July 15 to 16, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 10.00% from 50.0 to 55.0, SR05 - 09 increased by 4.61% from - 217.0 to - 227.0, SR09 - 01 increased by 2.99% from 167.0 to 172.0, CF01 - 05 decreased by 14.29% from 35.0 to 30.0, CF05 - 09 increased by 138.46% from - 65.0 to - 155.0, and CF09 - 01 increased by 316.67% from 30.0 to 125.0 [3]. - Basis: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 0.37% from 270.0 to 269.0, the basis of sugar 05 increased by 1.25% from 320.0 to 324.0, the basis of sugar 09 decreased by 5.83% from 103.0 to 97.0, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 5.06% from 1482.0 to 1407.0, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 5.27% from 1517.0 to 1437.0, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 11.71% from 1452.0 to 1282.0 [3]. - Import Prices: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.75 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1590.0 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0744, with the futures underlying SR509 and a historical volatility of 7.29; the implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0751; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1206, with the futures underlying CF509 and a historical volatility of 8.48; the implied volatility of CF509P14000 is 0.1118 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 15 to 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.38% from 22602.0 to 22289.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.75% from 9716.0 to 9643.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale and reputable futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]