煤焦早报：粗钢限产传闻提振板块情绪，煤焦震荡运行-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rumor of crude steel production restrictions has boosted the sentiment of the sector, and coal and coke are oscillating. The market tends to trade policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The social financing data in June exceeded expectations, and the short - term bullish sentiment remains strong. However, the possible implementation of steel production control may suppress the price increase of coal and coke spot, but it may also drive the overall repair of industrial chain profits. Currently, coking coal faces resistance after basis repair and may have short - term correction pressure [1][4][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month, with significant increases in government and corporate financing [1] 3.2 Coking Coal - Spot and Futures: The spot price of coking coal increased, while the futures price oscillated downward. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was 950 yuan/ton, the active contract was 897 yuan/ton (-14.5), the basis was 73 yuan/ton (+14.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - Supply and Demand: Mine production resumed, but the intensity was lower than expected. The demand contracted. The operating rate of 523 mines was 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal washing plants was 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - Inventory: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 377.18 million tons (-32.43), that of coal washing plants was 197.07 million tons (-17.91), that of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises was 752.44 million tons (+36), and the port inventory was 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] 3.3 Coke - Spot and Futures: There is an expectation of spot price increase, and the futures price oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, and some steel mills in Tianjin accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract was 1494.5 yuan/ton (-19.5), the basis was -183 yuan/ton (+19.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -44 yuan/ton (+2.5) [3] - Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand declined, but there was still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 million tons (-1.04) [3] - Inventory: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills was 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and the port inventory was 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs to July 31. The market's attitude towards tariffs is mainly risk - prevention without further pricing. Domestically, the anti - involution campaign continues to develop, and the social financing data in June exceeded expectations. For coking coal, mine production resumed but was less than expected, and the spot trading volume reached a new high this year. For coke, some steel mills accepted a 50 - yuan/ton spot price increase. The blast furnace profit remained at around 180 yuan. The rumor of crude steel production restrictions increased, and the pig iron output declined, but the supply and demand of coke remained tight. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [4]