镍、不锈钢：日内延续震荡走势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The nickel ore support weakened due to the increase in the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines, and the second - stage nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly affected by weak downstream demand. The transaction price of ferronickel continued to decline, affected by the negative feedback from the stainless - steel industry, and iron plants suffered serious losses. Stainless steel also continued to fluctuate, with cost support weakening, and some large manufacturers entered the production - cut cycle again. The new - energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cooperation between Indonesia and the United States after they reached a tariff agreement [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continued cobalt - mine ban in Congo, Jinhai's entry into the production - cut cycle, Indonesia's shortening of the nickel - ore quota license period from three years to one year, and potential impacts on the nickel industry chain from the Indonesia - US tariff negotiation. Negative factors include high pure - nickel inventory, stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow de - stocking, and deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an unchanged oversupply situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - Inventory Management Strategy: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) [3]. - Procurement Management Strategy: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about rising raw - material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk (strategy level 3); sell put options (strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (strategy level 3) [3]. 3.2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,550 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,710 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the continuous - two contract is 120,820 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the continuous - three contract is 120,970 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,215 US dollars/ton, up 1.02%. The trading volume is 131,554 lots, and the open interest is 54,128 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,555 tons, up 1.22%. The basis of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 77.8% [8]. - Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the continuous - two contract is 12,740 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the continuous - three contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The trading volume is 151,703 lots, and the open interest is 100,817 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 110,991 tons, down 0.05%. The basis of the main contract is 375 yuan/ton, up 5.63% [9]. - Nickel Industry Inventory Data: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, an increase of 708 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel - pig - iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [10].