新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-17）-20250717

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Upward [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Upward [2] - Rolled Steel: Sideways [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda Ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Sideways [4] - Silver: Strong - trending [4] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Palm Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways with an Upward Bias [5] - Soybean Meal: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Soybean No. 2: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Soybean No. 1: Wide - range Fluctuation [5] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Short on Highs [9] - MEG: Short on Highs [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The black industry is affected by supply - side reform news and production restrictions in Tangshan, with short - term price fluctuations. The iron ore market has short - term strength but a long - term oversupply situation. The coking coal and coke market may see increased supply, and downstream demand is weakening. The rolled steel market has limited supply - demand contradictions in the short term, and the glass market has short - term supply contraction expectations [2]. - In the financial sector, the stock index shows different trends, and the bond market has a narrow - range rebound. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high - level sideways movement [4]. - The pulp and log markets have a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The oil and fat market is supported by biodiesel expectations, while the粕类 market is affected by US soybean production and trade policies [5]. - The live pig market has a downward trend in transaction weight and a possible decline in the weekly average price due to increased supply and weak demand. The rubber market has tight supply and weak demand, with inventory adjustments [7][9]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester sector have different supply - demand and price trends, with some suggesting short - selling opportunities on highs [9]. Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron Ore: Season - end impulse of mines is basically over, global iron ore shipments decline, proximal arrivals increase, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore price is strong in the short term due to sentiment disturbances but has a long - term oversupply pattern [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply may increase as some coal mines and coke enterprises are expected to resume production. Coke enterprises' profits shrink, downstream demand weakens, and inventory pressure increases [2]. - Rolled Steel: The "anti - involution" policy boosts supply - side sentiment, but the market is affected by the less - than - expected central urban work conference. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term [2]. - Glass: Spot prices decline slightly, inventory decreases, and the long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. The short - term price is supported by policies [2]. - Soda Ash: The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is sideways with a slightly upward bias, depending on downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Sector - Stock Index: Different stock indices show various trends, with capital flowing in and out of different sectors. The economic data reflects certain resilience [4]. - Treasury Bond: The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market has a narrow - range rebound [4]. - Gold and Silver: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, safety - hedge, and commodity attributes, and is expected to maintain high - level sideways movement. Silver is strong - trending [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The cost price drops, the papermaking industry's profit is low, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [5]. - Logs: The arrival volume is expected to decrease, the daily shipment volume is low, and the market is in a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, while the impact of futures delivery needs attention [5]. Oil, Fat, and Oilseed Meal - Oils and Fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreases, but inventory increases. The domestic oil inventory rises, and the market is supported by biodiesel expectations [5]. - Oilseed Meal: The US soybean production and trade policies affect the market, and the domestic soybean import volume is large, with the price showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The transaction weight may decline slightly, the slaughter enterprise's settlement price is volatile, and the opening rate may continue to decline, with the weekly average price possibly falling [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is tight due to weather conditions, the demand is weak, and the inventory is in the adjustment stage, with the price expected to be in wide - range fluctuations [9]. Polyester Sector - PX: The supply is tight in the short term, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - PTA: The supply increases, the downstream load decreases, and the medium - term supply - demand weakens, with the price following the cost in the short term [9]. - MEG: The port inventory decreases slightly, but the supply pressure may appear in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [9]. - PR: The cost support weakens, and the market is in a weak - stable pattern [9]. - PF: The terminal demand is weak, and the price may continue to be weak and sideways [9].