Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - Policy and Economy: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - Investment Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - Investment Strategy: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - Investment Strategy: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - Supply - Demand: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - Investment Strategy: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - Supply - Demand: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - Investment Strategy: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - Supply - Demand: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - Investment Strategy: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - Supply - Demand: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - Investment Strategy: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - Supply - Demand: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - Supply - Demand: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - Supply - Demand: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - Investment Strategy: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - Supply - Demand: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - Investment Strategy: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - Investment Strategy: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - Investment Strategy: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - Supply - Demand: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - Investment Strategy: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - Supply - Demand: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - Investment Strategy: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - Supply - Demand: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - Investment Strategy: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - Supply - Demand: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - Investment Strategy: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - Supply - Demand: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - Investment Strategy: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - Investment Strategy: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - Supply - Demand: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - Investment Strategy: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - Supply - Demand: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - Investment Strategy: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - Investment Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - Supply - Demand: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - Investment Strategy: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - Supply - Demand: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - Investment Strategy: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - Investment Strategy: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - Supply - Demand: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - Investment Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - Supply - Demand: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - Investment Strategy: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - Supply - Demand: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - Investment Strategy: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - Supply - Demand: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - Investment Strategy: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - Supply - Demand: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - Investment Strategy: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - Supply - Demand: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - Investment Strategy: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - Supply - Demand: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - Investment Strategy: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - Investment Strategy: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - Market Performance: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - Supply - Demand: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - Investment Strategy: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - Supply - Demand: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - Supply - Demand: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - Investment Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].
西南期货早间评论-20250717
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:31