固收周报：“反内卷”与供给侧结构性改革的差异-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the interest - rate bond market, from July 04 to July 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 459.7 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with 1,178.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 718.4 billion yuan in the full - scale. Bank - to - bank fund prices mostly rose, and interest - rate bond yields generally increased while the term spread narrowed [1]. - In the credit bond market, from July 07 to July 13, 2025, the primary market issued 957 credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 1,013.838 billion yuan, a net financing of 176.148 billion yuan. Credit bond yields mostly increased [2]. - For major asset weekly observation, from July 04 to July 11, 2025, US stock indices generally declined, European stock indices generally rose, US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, non - US currencies weakened, and both crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 718.4 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange fund prices mostly rose, with some exceptions like the overnight GC001 in the exchange market [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From July 07 to July 13, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 690 billion yuan, with a net financing of 462.369 billion yuan. Local government bond issuance increased compared to the previous period [28]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, Treasury bond and China Development Bank bond yields generally increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [35]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From July 07 to July 13, 2025, 957 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 1,013.838 billion yuan, a net financing of 176.148 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.85% of the total issuance. Credit bonds were mainly issued with a term of 3 - 5 years, and the financial industry had the most issuances [47][49]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, most credit bond yields increased. Among them, the 3 - year AA + rated urban investment bonds and the 7 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increases [2][56]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From July 07 to July 13, 2025, there were no corporate credit bond defaults [57]. 3.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Differentiation of European and American Stock Indices - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, US stock indices generally declined, European stock indices generally rose, and Asia - Pacific stock indices showed mixed performance [61]. 3.3.2 Increase in US Treasury Yields - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, US Treasury yields generally increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 6.00BP to 34.00BP [62]. 3.3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, the US dollar index rose by 0.91%, and non - US currencies weakened [67]. 3.3.4 Increase in Crude Oil and Gold Prices - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, both crude oil and gold prices increased [69]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The current "anti - involution" and the previous supply - side structural reform differ in background, policy goals, and beneficiary industries. The previous reform was about "eliminating the old", while the current "anti - involution" is about "establishing the new". The essence of both is to promote the transformation of the economy from "quantity" to "quality" [76][78]. - For the bond market, if the economic data in June shows "weak reality" and policy easing intensifies, interest rates may still decline; if the economic data in June exceeds expectations and the policies at the Politburo meeting at the end of July fall short, beware of bond market corrections. In operation, it is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy, moderately participate in interest - rate bond trading, select high - rated and medium - to - long - term credit bonds, and for convertible bonds, balance the allocation, moderately increase high - cost - performance balanced convertible bonds, and pay attention to the elasticity opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [4][78].