工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日）-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.91% and a decrease in open interest by 16,085 lots to 379,800 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 9,111 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon rose to 8,700 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2508 closed at 42,945 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.5% and an increase in open interest by 1,962 lots to 71,783 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 44,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 43,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 555 yuan/ton [2]. - Market news indicates that Xinjiang may cancel subsidized electricity prices, and large - scale production cuts may not be restarted. As the cost of industrial silicon increases, its price continues to recover. However, there are many differences in the market, the overall transmission is limited, and it is difficult to continue to rise sharply. It is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved, and the market transactions are almost stagnant. The futures follow the spot price and are more based on the logic of speculative demand trading. In the short term, there are a lot of true and false news in the market, the volatility of the market increases, and the risk of chasing up rises [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,765 yuan/ton on July 15 to 8,680 yuan/ton on July 16, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton. The price of most spot varieties increased slightly, such as the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China rising from 8,900 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed from - 60 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 43 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,800 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 42,470 yuan/ton on July 15 to 42,945 yuan/ton on July 16, an increase of 475 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The lowest deliverable price remained at 43,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 1,030 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market increased from 11,000 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of other organic silicon products remained unchanged [4]. - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, while the inventory of polysilicon increased [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][15][17]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][33].