天然橡胶社会库存小幅回升

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic concentrated latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the demand for downstream products is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. The import pressure in China is expected to ease in July, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term. The supply of butadiene in China has decreased slightly, and port inventory has continued to decline. The restart of downstream maintenance devices is beneficial to butadiene demand. Under the loss pattern of butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive butadiene rubber to continue to rebound. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,765 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,695 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 50 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 200 yuan/ton (- 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,784 yuan/ton (+ 61.45), the NR basis was 134.00 yuan/ton (+ 2.00); the price of full - latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,300 yuan/ton (+ 120), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged); the price of STR20 was 1,765 US dollars/ton (+ 15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (+ 120) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.65 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.36), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.15), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.95 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+ 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+ 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+ 7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 75 yuan/ton (+ 10), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (- 80), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,067 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]