新能源及有色金属日报：政策端扰动仍在，多晶硅盘面继续上涨-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to lower-than-usual southwest开工 and fewer furnace startups by large northwest manufacturers, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. However, after the futures price rebounded, traders faced difficulties in selling, and spot liquidity decreased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - sellers should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is suitable to buy on dips. In the long - term, considering the expected policy introduction, polysilicon is suitable for long - term long - position layout [2][6][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped slightly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8740 yuan/ton and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.91%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 379,848 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,215 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The downstream's acceptance of the price decreased, and the market's inquiry and trading volume declined. The organic silicon DMC price remained stable, some enterprises' prices rose slightly, pre - sales were good, inventory pressure decreased, and market trading was active [1] Polysilicon - On July 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 42,360 yuan/ton and closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, a 1.50% increase from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 71,783 lots (69,821 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 449,860 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 11.50 GW, a 3.37% decrease [3] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R was 1.15 yuan/piece. Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W. Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Short - term: Wait and see [2] Polysilicon - Short - term: Buy on dips [7] Others - No strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4][7] Factors to Monitor - Northwest and southwest resumption of production and new capacity commissioning; polysilicon enterprise operation changes; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; organic silicon enterprise operation conditions; industry self - regulation's impact on upstream and downstream operation; futures listing's impact on the spot market; capital sentiment; policy disturbances [4][7]