光大期货农产品日报-20250717

Research Views Corn - On Wednesday, the September corn contract first rose and then fell, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through the support level and declined rapidly, with the futures price significantly lower than the spot price. This attracted buying at the beginning of the week, driving the futures price up, but the rebound was limited, and the price was weak. The import corn auction on Tuesday had a negative impact on the market, with the futures market showing low - level fluctuations and the spot price also being average. Northeast deep - processing factories continued to lower their corn purchase prices, while the price in North China remained stable. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing factories decreased, and some enterprises' prices rebounded slightly. In the sales area, the corn price continued to fall. The futures price had been falling for many days, and the import corn auction had an average transaction rate, leading to faster sales by traders, but the downstream's purchasing attitude was lukewarm. Feed mills mainly used wheat, and corn was only for rigid - demand restocking. Technically, the September contract price was under pressure at the 2300 - yuan integer mark and was expected to continue to decline [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to hopes of increased US export demand. The US Department of Agriculture announced a 120,000 - ton large - order sale and a 219,000 - ton export to Mexico last Friday. The market was optimistic about the export sales report to be released on Thursday. On the 15th, the US and Indonesia reached an agreement where Indonesia promised to buy $15 billion worth of US energy products, $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft. Domestically, soybean meal fluctuated with a decreasing price volatility. Oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but the terminal's inquiry intention was low, mainly for short - term rigid - demand purchases, and the inventory of soybean meal was accumulating rapidly. Some factories suspended spot quotations or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market closely watched the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading idea was a slightly bullish oscillation, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal should be held [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose following the uptrend of the surrounding markets. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.29% - 6.2% month - on - month. SPPOMA data indicated that from July 1 - 15, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06%. The increase in production and slowdown in exports limited the rise of palm oil. Domestically, the oil market continued to show a differentiated trend. The decline in the outer - market oil price brought pressure and led to long - position profit - taking. The phenomenon of urgent delivery of soybean oil was still serious, and the inventory was accumulating. The palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, while the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. However, the recent improvement in the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market limited the rapeseed oil price. The oils mainly oscillated, and single - side intraday trading was recommended, with the 9 - 1 positive spreads held [1]. Egg - On Wednesday, the main egg 2509 contract oscillated weakly, closing down 0.66% at 3591 yuan per 500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price was 2.72 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous day. In the production area, the prices in some places were flat, and in the sales area, some prices were stable while some increased. After the plum - rain season, eggs would gradually enter the peak - demand season, but considering the supply - side pressure, the price peak was expected to be lower than last year. In the short term, the futures price would continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the egg's supply - demand structure and feed - raw material prices on the futures price [1][2]. Pig - On Wednesday, the main pig 2509 contract oscillated weakly during the session and declined from the phased high, closing down 1.68% at 14,010 yuan per ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the national average daily pig price was 14.42 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12 yuan per kilogram from the previous day, and the price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was also down. The breeding end had a certain enthusiasm for selling, but the downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were making losses. Under the situation of oversupply, the pig price continued to decline. The futures price adjusted from the high due to the falling spot price. Considering the current fundamentals, there was no obvious change. With supply pressure and policy support, the pig price was expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. Market Information - Ukraine's parliament passed a bill on Wednesday to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, which would harm the interests of small farmers and producers. Ukraine is an important oil - seed producer and exporter in Europe [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [3]. - Russian agricultural consulting agency Sovecon raised its forecast for the 2025 grain total output to 130.5 million tons from the previous 129.5 million tons, and the wheat output forecast was raised to 83.6 million tons from 83 million tons [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency announced that the US renewable fuel blending credits in June increased compared to May. The ethanol (D6) blending credits in June were about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credits increased from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that from July 1 - 15, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presented contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1, but no specific data analysis was provided [5][6][8]. Contract Basis - The report also presented contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][20].