供需结构稳定，油脂震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of oils and fats is stable, and the prices are oscillating. The weak export data forecast of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of July exerts pressure on the oils and fats market, while the biodiesel expectation provides some support to the market [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,722.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +14 yuan (+0.16%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,042.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +30.00 yuan (+0.37%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,470.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +66.00 yuan (+0.70%) [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,790.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +50.00 yuan (+0.57%), and the spot basis was P09 + 68.00, with a month - on - month change of +36.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,200.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +40.00 yuan/ton (+0.49%), and the spot basis was Y09 + 158.00, with a month - on - month change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,590.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +70.00 yuan (+0.74%), and the spot basis was OI09 + 120.00, with a month - on - month change of +4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary - Russian agricultural consulting agency Sovecon raised its forecast for the total grain output in 2025 to 130.5 million tons, up from the previous expectation of 129.5 million tons. The forecast for Russian wheat output was raised from 83 million tons to 83.6 million tons [2] - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from July 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06% [2] - Under the National Oil Palm Program, the Indian government aims to increase the domestic crude palm oil output from the current 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029. By next year, the planting area is expected to increase from the current 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 571 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 561 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1,135 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,096 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: the price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (August shipment) was 440 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) was 460 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The import premium quote of soybeans: the price of the Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 216 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day; the price of the US West Coast (August shipment) was 189 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day; the price of Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 250 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day [2]