新能源及有色金属日报：锌海外库存持续增加-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. The import concentrate TC is still rising, and the domestic smelting profit is still substantial. The expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. The continuous increase in overseas inventory and rapid accumulation of social inventory will put pressure on zinc prices. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.95 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 22,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with the premium unchanged at 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton. [1] - Futures: On July 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,040 yuan/ton and closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,469 lots, a decrease of 29,569 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 78,311 lots, a decrease of 5,993 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,065 yuan/ton and a low of 21,965 yuan/ton. [1] - Inventory: As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of July 16, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Market Analysis - Spot Market: The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking. The downstream raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. [3] - Cost Side: The import concentrate TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. The domestic smelting profit is still substantial, and the expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. The smelter's raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves, and the enthusiasm for purchasing from the concentrate side is not high. [3] - Consumption Side: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, and the social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation. [3]