光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日）-20250717

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the short - term price may have some upward space with large amplitude, but the sustainability of the upward trend is not strong in the medium - to - long term. The new - year high - yield expectation is strong, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. The current fundamental driving factors are limited, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term.密切关注持仓变化 [1] - For sugar, the Indian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 15% compared to the previous season. The domestic spot price is slightly down, and the market is waiting for the June import data and the 9, 1 contract reverse - spread opportunity [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views - Cotton: On Wednesday, ICE cotton fell 0.04% to 68.56 cents/pound, CF509 rose 1.16% to 13,990 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions increased by 21,677 lots to 588,400 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang decreased by 71 yuan/ton to 15,215 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 15,272 yuan/ton. The US PPI was flat month - on - month and up 2.3% year - on - year. The new - year high - yield expectation is strong, and the supply - demand is loose. The domestic cotton price has some support but limited new driving factors. The 2025 domestic new - cotton output may exceed 7 million tons, and the demand improvement is difficult in the short term [1] - Sugar: The Indian investment and credit rating agency ICRA expects the 2025/26 season sugar production to reach 34 million tons, up 15% from the previous season. The domestic spot quotations are slightly down, and the market is waiting for the June import data and the 9, 1 contract reverse - spread opportunity [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 125 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis is 1,282 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national spot price is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 166 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis is 272 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The Nanning spot price is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] 3. Market Information - On July 16, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 73 to 9,643, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are: Xinjiang 15,215 yuan/ton, Henan 15,323 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,226 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,508 yuan/ton [3] - On July 16, the yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.3 to 49.9, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained flat at 30.2, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 48.1, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory remained flat at 33.8 [3] - On July 16, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 6,050 yuan/ton and 6,080 yuan/ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 313 to 22,289, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts on cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][15] 5. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for sugar, urea, glass, and cotton research respectively, and have rich experience and many honors [20][21][22]