碳酸锂日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日）-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.39% to 66,420 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 50 yuan/ton to 64,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 50 yuan/ton to 63,350 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 548 tons to 10,655 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly reflected in lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and it is expected that the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July will change little month - on - month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate link [3]. - The continuous decrease of warehouse receipts, the continuous rise of lithium ore prices, and the large number of disturbances in the market news have short - term stimulated the price increase. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipt inventory. In the long run, hedging pressure will also follow. At present, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Opportunities for short - selling after the sentiment turns can still be noted. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth price correction [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 66,420 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 66,600 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from the previous day [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 685 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 890 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,450 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,670 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan from the previous day; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,535 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan from the previous day [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 63,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 62,570 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 51,970 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) remained at 8 US dollars/kg [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 49,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7,530 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 199.2 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan from the previous day [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: The report provides charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts of metal lithium prices, average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from 2024 to 2025 are presented [12][14][16]. - Price differences: Charts of the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, the price difference between imported and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 are included [19][20][21]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 are provided [23][26][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are shown [32][34]. - Inventory: Charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links from November 2024 to July 2025 are presented [37][39]. - Production cost: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (including外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 is provided [41].