有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日）-20250717

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.21% to $9,637/ton; SHFE copper main contract slightly declined 0.01% to CNY 77,950/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, with the loss narrowing. The US economic data and Fed's report showed some economic improvement, but the copper market was worried about the global economic outlook. The short - term inventory was accumulating, and the demand was weak due to the off - season. The copper price showed weakness, and its trend was unclear. If the 50% copper tariff became a reality, it would cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The Guinea's policy on bauxite index raised cost concerns. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to remain strong due to factors like low inventory and cost support. The new US tariff was about to be implemented, which might lead to global liquidity tightening. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulation was not smooth, and it was difficult for the price to fall significantly. The aluminum alloy was affected by the off - season [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel fell 1.48% to $14,990/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to CNY 119,510/ton. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan was announced, and the nickel ore price decreased slightly. The stainless - steel cost support weakened, and the inventory remained high. The demand for nickel in the new - energy industry increased slightly in July. The nickel price was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Copper: The price of LME and SHFE copper decreased. The US economic data and Fed's report affected the market sentiment. The inventory increased in multiple exchanges, and the demand was weak due to the off - season and trade policies. The price showed weakness, and the trend was unclear [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices fell, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices rose. The Guinea's policy, domestic market factors, and inventory conditions affected the price trend. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to be strong, and the price was difficult to fall significantly [1][2]. - Nickel: The price of LME and Shanghai nickel decreased. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan, nickel ore price, stainless - steel industry situation, and new - energy industry demand affected the nickel price. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of some copper products changed slightly, and the inventory increased in LME, COMEX, and social inventory. The import loss narrowed [3]. - Lead: The price of lead products decreased, and the inventory in LME decreased while the inventory in SHFE increased [3]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum products changed, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory of alumina [4]. - Nickel: The price of some nickel products increased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased. The stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - Zinc: The price of zinc products decreased, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory [5]. - Tin: The price of tin products decreased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased [5]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts showed the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts presented the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - LME Inventory: Charts displayed the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts showed the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - Social Inventory: Charts presented the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - Smelting Profit: Charts showed the trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many spot leading enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He provides policy interpretations and writes in - depth reports [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides policy interpretations [47].