油料日报：大豆花生短期震荡偏强，中长期宽松格局难改-20250717

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and peanuts show a slightly strong and volatile trend, but in the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is likely to be loose [1][2][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soybean View - Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2507 contract yesterday was 4179.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A07 + 121, down 30 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market remained stable on July 16 [1] - Market Situation: The current domestic soybeans are in the transition period between old and new crops. Tight short - term supply due to the digestion of old stocks is offset by the expected abundant supply in the long - term from increased imports and good growth of new crops. The demand side has short - term support but also faces constraints [2] - Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View - Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8232.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.49%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8720.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK10 - 32.00, down 40.00 (-500.00%) from the previous day. Market quotes were generally stable, and the trading was in a stalemate [3] - Market Situation: Short - term supply is tight due to factors such as low cold - storage inventory liquidity and uneven regional supply. However, the expected supply will increase with the stable growth of the new - season planting area and good growth [3][4] - Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [3]