宏观与产业共振，郑棉突破万四关口

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, but in the long - term, the cotton market will be in a supply - surplus pattern, and cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating within a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is maintained [5] - The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of July 11, India's new - season cotton sown area was 9.3 million hectares, about 2.1% less than the same period last year. In May 2025, US wholesalers' clothing and clothing fabric sales were $14.005 billion, up 8.11% year - on - year and 1.94% month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report was bearish, and the 25/26 global cotton market will be in a supply - loose pattern. The USDA raised the forecast of US cotton production, and the US cotton balance sheet is unlikely to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and weather disturbances support the recent rise of Zhengzhou cotton. However, domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, and new cotton is growing well. The weak off - season demand restricts the upward space of cotton prices, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.10%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: ICRA expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season [3] Market Analysis - International: The market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 season. The long - term downward pressure on raw sugar remains, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [4] - Domestic: The fast sales of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory support the spot price. However, the rebound of import profit and expected import increase will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,242 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.38%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Market News: The price of imported wood pulp showed a weakening trend, with some softwood pulp prices falling and some hardwood pulp prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year. High port inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: Paper pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak, and domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season. The planned increase in finished paper production capacity has not led to a significant increase in demand, and terminal demand is expected to improve only slightly in the second half of the year [7]