资金面宽松，国债期货涨跌分化

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 trillion repurchase, the bond yields have declined. The bond market will continue its short - term volatile pattern, while in the medium and long term, it will maintain a bullish foundation supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is considered neutral due to the rising repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging in the medium term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 98.31, with a decrease of 0.33 and a decline rate of 0.33%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1810, with an increase of 0.006 and a growth rate of 0.08%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.50, with a decrease of 0.04 and a decline rate of 2.72%; DR007 is 1.53, with a decrease of 0.04 and a decline rate of 2.58%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.80%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with an increase of 0.02 and a change rate of - 0.80% [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Market Performance on July 16, 2025: The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.42 yuan, 106.00 yuan, 108.84 yuan, and 120.71 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, - 0.01%, - 0.05%, and - 0.05% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.015 yuan, - 0.025 yuan, - 0.015 yuan, and 0.074 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Central Bank Operations: On July 16, 2025, the central bank conducted a 520.1 billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - Money Market Interest Rates: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.466%, 1.504%, 1.559%, and 1.540% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific numerical analysis content is provided in the text, but it is expected to analyze various spread trends such as the inter - period spread of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical analysis content is provided in the text, but it is expected to analyze indicators such as the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the TS main contract. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical analysis content is provided in the text, but it is expected to analyze indicators such as the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the TF main contract. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical analysis content is provided in the text, but it is expected to analyze indicators such as the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the T main contract. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific numerical analysis content is provided in the text, but it is expected to analyze indicators such as the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis of the TL main contract.