PPI数据录得新低，表明企业在部分吸收关税影响

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]