化工日报：供应恢复不如预期，EG震荡反弹-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,351 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,385 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to the unexpected load reduction of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the shutdown of several plants in Saudi Arabia due to power issues, and the postponed restart of Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant, the supply improvement at home and abroad was lower than expected, leading to a rebound in EG prices [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$56/ton (down $2/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 38 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons (down 27,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 481,000 tons (down 61,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 45,000 tons, but the planned arrival at the secondary ports is concentrated at 65,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the peak maintenance period in China has passed, and domestic ethylene glycol production is on the rise. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. However, in July, the actual supply recovery at home and abroad was lower than expected due to the load reduction of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the slow restart in Saudi Arabia. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, with high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure increases in late July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,351 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,385 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$56/ton (down $2/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 38 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data or analysis on international spread is provided in the current content, only the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is mentioned [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis on downstream production, sales, and operating rate is provided in the current content, only relevant figures such as "Figure 10: Filament production and sales", "Figure 11: Staple fiber production and sales" are mentioned [20] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons (down 27,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 481,000 tons (down 61,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 45,000 tons, but the planned arrival at the secondary ports is concentrated at 65,000 tons [1]