美国6月PPI数据疲软，通胀与利率政策博弈加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic recovery in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal stimulus and "front - loading exports", but the foundation for economic stabilization needs further consolidation. The "anti - involution" policy expectations in multiple industries are rising, and attention should be paid to the possible further strengthening of pro - growth policies at the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After the passage of the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations, and the impact of tariff events on demand expectations needs to be monitored [1]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and a cautious attitude should be maintained towards the implementation of policy expectations, while the volatility of commodity prices may remain high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic Economy: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. In June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, with rapid growth in the production of new - energy vehicles and industrial robots. However, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 4.8% in June, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined [1]. - Policy Expectations: Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, and the "anti - involution" policy expectations in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and automobile have increased [1]. - US Situation: Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" policies. The US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the month - on - month rate was flat. Trump has accelerated tariff negotiations, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [1]. Commodity Market - Domestic Supply - Sensitive Sectors: The black and new - energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to domestic supply - side changes. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated [2]. - Overseas Inflation - Benefiting Sectors: The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [2]. - Agricultural Products: There are no short - term weather disturbances in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [3]. To - Do News - Stock Market: On July 16, the three major A - share indices declined slightly, with the ChiNext Index rising and then falling back. Pharmaceutical and robot concept stocks were strong, while the silicone sector adjusted [1][4]. - Interest Rate: The President of the Dallas Fed, Logan, supports maintaining the interest rate unchanged to cool inflation and believes that if inflation and the labor market weaken, interest rate cuts may be considered [1][4]. - Tariff and Trade: Trump is accelerating tariff negotiations, with tariffs on some countries already determined or to be announced. The US has also launched investigations into the trade practices of some countries, and the impact of these tariff events on demand expectations needs to be monitored [1][5]. - Energy: The US API crude oil inventory increased last week, and the US has threatened to withdraw from the International Energy Agency due to its support for green energy [2][5].