中原期货晨会纪要-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple markets, including macro - economic indicators, commodities, and financial indices. It details price movements, trends, and provides trading suggestions for various sectors such as agriculture, energy, industry, and finance [2][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro Indicators: On July 17, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.526% to 44254.78, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.255% to 20730.49, and the S&P 500 rose 0.319% to 6263.70. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.294% to 24517.76. SHIBOR overnight dropped 4.495% to 1.47, the US dollar index rose 0.042% to 98.33, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - External Futures: COMEX gold rose 0.712% to 3354.20, COMEX silver rose 0.369% to 38.13. LME copper fell 0.212% to 9637.00, LME aluminum fell 0.290% to 2575.50, etc. [2]. - Domestic Futures: Gold rose 0.337% to 779.28, silver rose 0.109% to 9162.00, copper fell 0.038% to 77950.00, etc. [2]. - Chemicals: Coking coal rose 0.836% to 904.50, coke rose 0.636% to 1504.00, natural rubber rose 0.172% to 14525.00, etc. [4]. - Agricultural Products: Yellow soybean No.1 rose 0.239% to 4189.00, yellow soybean No.2 rose 0.909% to 3663.00, soybean meal rose 1.176% to 3012.00, etc. [4]. 3.2 Macro News - The 3rd China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - The State Council Executive Meeting discussed policies for strengthening the domestic cycle, the order of the new - energy vehicle industry, and the rectification of audit problems [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized high - level opening - up and issued a notice on tax - credit policies for foreign investors' reinvestment [7][8]. - The National Energy Administration reported that the national maximum power load on July 16 reached a record high of 15.06 billion kilowatts [8]. - The Passenger Car Association data showed that from July 1 - 13, the national passenger car market retail sales were 571,000 units, a 7% year - on - year increase, and the new - energy market retail sales were 332,000 units, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with prices expected to be volatile but still on a downward trend [12]. - Oils and Fats: The market is quiet, with stable basis and expected to be volatile [12]. - Sugar: The market is a tug - of - war between summer consumption and import pressure. It is recommended to trade in the 5750 - 5850 yuan range [12]. - Corn: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 2300 yuan [12]. - Pigs: Supply is abundant, and futures are weak after basis repair [13]. - Eggs: Prices are rising, with reduced supply and increased demand. There is room for price increases [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The market has limited supply - demand fluctuations, and prices are expected to fluctuate slightly [13]. - Urea: Supply is high, and demand has a weakening trend. The futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper prices are under pressure due to inflation and tariff concerns. Aluminum prices are pressured by production capacity, cost, and demand factors [13][15]. - Alumina: The price is adjusted, with the upper limit pressured by the May high [15]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and prices fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [15]. - Ferroalloys: The market rebounds, but the long - term over - capacity situation remains. There is still upward potential [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Imported Mongolian coal prices are high, and the spot market is temporarily stable [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market has high inventory pressure. It is recommended to short in the 67000 - 67500 yuan range [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices are stronger. Attention should be paid to the low - buying opportunities in technology sectors [18]. - Options: Different index futures and options have different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. Investment strategies are provided for trend and volatility investors [20][21]. 3.4 Personnel Information The report lists the names, qualification numbers, and investment - consulting license numbers of employees in the agricultural products, industrial products, and financial options sectors [23].